THE FINAL COUNT is AN ORGANIZATION DEDICATED TO PREDICTING FOOTBALL (NFL AND NCAAFB) MATCHUPS USING ANALYTICS.
The Final Count uses analytics to turn data into success on the field. We are constantly trying to relate analytics to real-life.
Analytical stats that we use to predict football matchups:
From Football Outsiders: “DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative.“
**DVOA is 1/2 offense, 3/8 defense, and 1/8 special teams, so offense outweighs defense in the formula.
We have been using DVOA in most of our gambling picks in 2019. I think its the best judge for how a team is currently playing in the most important scenarios. I can’t give enough credit to the people over at The Football Outsiders.
From Football Outsiders: “The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, representing the per possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Unadjusted possession efficiency (PE) is calculated as a function of offensive, defensive, and special teams game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team’s average per possession opponent adjustment (OA). Opponent-adjusted offense ratings (OFEI), opponent-adjusted defense ratings (DFEI), and opponent-adjusted special teams ratings (SFEI) are calculated in a similar manner as overall FEI ratings. Team records against all FBS opponents (W-L) and against opponents ranked in the FEI top 10 (v10), top 20 (v20), top 30 (v30), top 40 (v40), and top 50 (v50) are also provided.”
After DVOA%, I plan on researching more into this. I love seeing how teams stack up in neutral grounds. I have to admit, I am fairly new to the college football analytical game. As I am still learning and developing my knowledge into analytics in the NFL, I will continue to post the more I find.
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