The Final Count – Football Analytics & Gambling

THE FINAL COUNT is AN ORGANIZATION DEDICATED TO PREDICTING FOOTBALL (NFL AND NCAAFB) MATCHUPS USING ANALYTICS.

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The Final Count uses analytics to turn data into success on the field. We are constantly trying to relate analytics to real-life.

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Analytical stats that we use to predict football matchups:

DVOA%

From Football Outsiders: “DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative.

**DVOA is 1/2 offense, 3/8 defense, and 1/8 special teams, so offense outweighs defense in the formula.

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We have been using DVOA in most of our gambling picks in 2019. I think its the best judge for how a team is currently playing in the most important scenarios. I can’t give enough credit to the people over at The Football Outsiders.

FEI

From Football Outsiders: “The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, representing the per possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Unadjusted possession efficiency (PE) is calculated as a function of offensive, defensive, and special teams game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team’s average per possession opponent adjustment (OA). Opponent-adjusted offense ratings (OFEI), opponent-adjusted defense ratings (DFEI), and opponent-adjusted special teams ratings (SFEI) are calculated in a similar manner as overall FEI ratings. Team records against all FBS opponents (W-L) and against opponents ranked in the FEI top 10 (v10), top 20 (v20), top 30 (v30), top 40 (v40), and top 50 (v50) are also provided.”

After DVOA%, I plan on researching more into this. I love seeing how teams stack up in neutral grounds. I have to admit, I am fairly new to the college football analytical game. As I am still learning and developing my knowledge into analytics in the NFL, I will continue to post the more I find.