Tag Archives: Picks

Titans-Patriots Full Preview, Analysis

For picks: https://thefinalcount.blog/2020/01/03/nfl-wild-card-weekend-picks-and-other-thoughts/

What a difference a week makes.

The Patriots should be resting and recovering from a brutal schedule but instead are gearing up to face a lethal Titans team.

Lethal is the only way to describe the Titans offense and the fact is the Patriots desperately need to get off to a good start offensively to keep up.

The Titans score points at large. They have the best red zone touchdown percentage (75.6 percent) in the NFL since 1991.

Good teams score in the red zone, and the Patriots could probably take some advice from the Titans.

Ryan Tannehill is a big reason why they score a lot of points.

The bad news for the Titans? The Patriots stout defense ranks first against the pass and seventh against the run, based on DVOA%.

Derrick Henry needs to get going early if the Titans want to have a chance at winning in Foxboro. New England has looked vulnerable against the run in recent weeks, so, it would only be fitting one of the best backs in the league could have a big day.

Tom Brady needs to be a better Quarterback in the playoffs. After his performance against Buffalo, Brady looked sure to have found his rhythm again. But, a bad outing against Miami has fans still scratching their head.

Brady has just a 77.2% passing rating this season according to PFF. The Patriots haven’t helped Brady by not running the ball well. Sony Michel has struggled all season to be consistent.

The Patriots key to victory will be to get the run game going and take pressure off of Brady early. The Titans can score a lot of points, and the only way the Patriots can keep up is if they control possession. The Titans key to victory is to get a pass rush going early.

The Patriots have utilized a quick pass game in order to help the struggling offensive line and if Tennessee can eliminate that, it could be a long night for Tom Brady and New England.

It should be a fun one in Foxboro today. The 2020 NFL Playoffs are here.

The Final Count is currently researching:

https://gist.github.com/wessonmo/ef44ea9873d70f816454cb88b86dcce6

Ben Baldwin works for The Athletic Seattle and does great work with analytics. I have been researching how Expected Points can help predict match-ups in the NFL, thus affecting point spreads and over/unders. We used the information to predict games this weekend. You can find that here:

https://thefinalcount.blog/2020/01/03/nfl-wild-card-weekend-picks-and-other-thoughts/

NFL – Outside the Box Episode 9 – Pick Em Pod Week 15

  • NFL WEEK 15 Pick em
  • We pick a winner in every NFL game
  • Recap of our epic 13-2 day last weekend
  • Bad Beats
  • We predict NFL playoff spreads
  • We used a lifeline for a pick and it did not go well

Outside the Box is presented by the Final Count.

Links:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/4Eto8VrtxA3k59iwoRC615?si=qu1PrdM7QGaQcVMymUoz_g

https://www.buzzsprout.com/585355/episodes/2260037

Beat The Spread: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

It’s November 28th, the turkey is in the oven, the leaves are falling from the tree’s and the Lions are down by 20 in the first half. It’s Thanksgiving. And it is glorious. I’m going to give you guys some picks that I am confident in through this weekend. I am 14-1 in college football picks the last 2 weeks, so follow me on twitter @Vin_Calderone to get my picks every weekend. Let’s take a look at my locks for all of the football in the coming days.

To preview all the action this week:

Tuesday, November 26th

Pick: Northern Illinois +9.5 (vs. Western Michigan)

A little MACtion to get the holiday week started. I like Northern Illinois in this spot. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS this season following a ATS loss.

Thursday, November 28th

Pick: Mississippi State -3 (vs. Ole Miss)

Pick: Bears -5.5 (@ Lions)

The Lions are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 Thursday games, while the Bears are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 against opponents from the NFC North. I think not having Stafford kills the Lions again and they will not be able to move the ball against the stout Bears defense.

Pick: Cowboys-6.5 (vs. Bills)

The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of November. I think a frustrated and angry Cowboys team runs through the Bills. They had New England on their toes last weekend and just could not pull through late. Dak Prescott is on fire of late and looks to keep that going through the holidays.

Pick: Falcons +7 (vs. Saints)

The Falcons are 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record this season. Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons have fought hard to try and erase the early season struggles that plagued their September and October. Sitting at 3-8 and likely to miss the playoffs, players and coaches are both fighting for their jobs and the Falcons are still in win-mode. They should at the very least cover.

Friday, November 29th

Pick: Texas -9.5 (vs. Texas Tech)

Pick: Virginia Tech -3 (vs. Virginia)

Pick: Central Michigan -9.5 (vs. Toledo)

Pick: Memphis -11 (vs. Cincinnati)

The Memphis Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Friday games. Brady White has been tremendous for the Tigers this season, throwing for 30 TD and 7 INT. Look for him to get the Tigers going early and often.

Pick: Washington State +7 (@ Washington)

Pick: Boise State -12.5 (@ Colorado State)

Boise State has been a sneaky good bet all season long. Even on the road. And the best part about it is they beat bad teams. 7-1-2 ATS vs. teams with losing record. Love the Broncos in this one.

Saturday, November 30th

Pick: Kentucky -3 (vs. Louisville)

Pick: Oklahoma -12 (@ Oklahoma State)

Pick: UNC -8 (@ NC State)

Pick: SMU -5 (vs. Tulane)

SMU has been largely carried offensively by stud RB Xavier Jones. He’s at 1124 yards and 19 TD’s on the year. I expect him to run rampant on a Tulane team that allows 378 yards a game.

Pick: Pittsburgh -9.5 (vs. Boston College)

Pick: Michigan +9 (vs. Ohio State)

I’ve been saying it for a month now. Michigan beats Ohio State Saturday. Shea Patterson is finally hitting his stride this season. Khaleke Hudson and the Michigan defense need to be able to shut down Ohio State and QB Justin Fields for Michigan to come out on top.

Pick: Kansas +14 (vs. Baylor)

Pick: Stanford +14.5 (vs. Notre Dame)

Pick: Auburn +3.5 (vs. Alabama)

No Tua is a big deal for Alabama, of course. I might be in the minority here, but I believe Auburn has been a great bet all season, and I think the stats back it up. Auburn is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

Pick: Minnesota +2.5 (vs. Wisconsin)

Sunday, December 1st

Pick: Jets -3 (@ Bengals)

Sam Darnold got my MVP of the week on Outside the Box this week. And I think he continues to roll against the winless Bengals.

Pick: Eagles -9.5 (@ Dolphins)

Dolphins are 15-37 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game (Covers.com). Stats like this blow my mind.

Pick: Chiefs -10 (vs. Raiders)

Pick: Titans +2.5 (@ Colts)

Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Pick: Broncos +2.5 (vs. Chargers)

Pick: Panthers -10 (vs. Redskins)

Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Pick: Browns -2 (vs. Steelers)

Pick: Ravens -6 (vs. 49ers)

Record for NFL picks ATS this season: 29-30***

Record for college football last 2 weeks: 14-1***

Gamble on, folks. And Happy Thanksgiving from everyone at The Final Count!

Beat the Spread: NFL Week 12

27-23 Record this season (started NFL week 6)

Last week I decided against posting my picks for college football and it backfired. I went 6-0. If you follow me on twitter you saw them and I hope you put them in with your bookie. NFL picks were great too. 6-3. So, as we approach this coming week of football, I will post my NFL picks on here and you can check my college football picks on twitter Saturday morning. Let’s go.

Pick: Falcons -4.5 (vs. Buccaneers)

Falcons have won their last 5 against the Buccaneers. Falcons players have clearly rallied for Dan Quinn and have been very impressive the last 2 weeks. I’m taking them off of my forbidden bets list and picking them Sunday. I LOVE THIS GAME.

Pick: Browns -10.5 (vs. Dolphins)

Browns need two wins in a row to stay in the playoff picture in the AFC. If they had 5 losses instead of 6 I’d feel much more confident in their season, but I’m fully confident they’ll get it done this weekend.

Pick: Seahawks +1.5 (@ Eagles)

Even as an Eagles fan, I have no confidence in the Eagles. No offense, no leadership, the team is now a joke. Love the Seahawks to win this game.

Pick: Saints -9.5 (vs. Panthers)

Kyle Allen stinks. I’m off of the bandwagon that I was never really on. Saints by a million.

Pick: Raiders -3 (@ Jets)

Don’t be fooled by the Jets win last week. They will get crushed by the Raiders. This is so easy.

Pick: Broncos +4 (vs. Bills)

I am in love with betting on the 2019 Denver Broncos. They aren’t even good but they are always competing with better teams, and covering. LOAD ALERT LOAD ALERT LOAD ALERT.

Pick: Lions -3.5 (@ Redskins)

Two awful teams, which one is more awful? The Redskins. Dumpster fire franchise. In fact, the Redskins have been so bad I generally don’t remember the last time I saw someone talk about how bad the Dolphins are.

Pick: Patriots -6.5 (vs. Cowboys)

The Patriots offense hasn’t been good but the Cowboys suck outside of the NFC East in recent years, and it will show this weekend. Love the Pats. Also: Is the Patriots’ best deep threat Julian Edelman? Yikes.

Pick: Packers +3 (@ 49ers)

Aaron Rodgers. I am totally on the bandwagon and I hate myself for joining it. He’s my dark horse MVP.

Pick: Ravens -3 (@ Rams)

What a game this is. Betting aside, this is a win or go home game for the Rams. They desperately need to win out to have a shot in the competitive NFC. Don’t think they have the offense to keep up with the Ravens. Weird what a difference a year makes.

Beat the Spread: CFB Week 11/NFL Week 10 picks

This season has just been so awesome. All of the storyline’s and great games have made 2019 the most entertaining season yet. From Lamarr Jackson to Gardner Minshew, we have seen a plethora of career changing seasons for individual players. I can’t wait to see the second half of the season.

Nick Foles is back. That has nothing to with my picks but I’m just very fired up about it.

Earlier in the week I tweeted that Antonio Brown was going to be an Eagle before the end of the week. I was wrong. Well, my source was actually wrong. Do I even have a source? Read this blog and there is a giant clue:

Pick: Chiefs -6 (@Titans)

Mahomes is back. All is good in Kansas City. All is bad in Tennessee. Chiefs roll in this one. I think it’s funny how fast we forget about how good Mahomes is. He was averaging 9.0 yards per pass play before he was hurt. Lets slow the brakes and get ready for the Chief’s inevitable run to the playoffs.

Pick: Giants -3 (@Jets)

The way that the Jets and Sam Darnold have been playing the last few weeks is atrocious. Darnold has no confidence. I’m not sure if Daniel Jones has much more confidence because he has thrown 8 interceptions. I love betting on a garbage bowl and I think the Giants win by a couple of touchdowns.

THIS IS SO BAD. HE ISN’T EVEN A ROOKIE.

Pick: Bills +3 (@Browns)

Browns have not played up to the level they were hyped up to be. Bills still have a decent enough defense to slow the run game down enough to make Baker have to make plays. I think Bills end up winning. Cleveland burns.

Pick: Rams -4 (@Steelers)

Rams desperately need to win to keep pace with the rest of the NFC West. Steelers Mason Rudolph has shown flashes but I don’t think he’s good enough to score much against Jalen Ramsey and the Rams defense. Rams roll.

Pick: Packers -5 (@Panthers)

I told someone this week that Aaron Rodgers is arguably the most impressive player in the NFL this year. He is looking like 2014 Aaron and it’s terrifying if you aren’t a Packers fan. Christian McCaffery is going to have to do everything he can to help Kyle Allen and the Panthers keep pace with Rodgers. Oh, and I didn’t even add that Rodgers has a lethal running game now. Wouldn’t surprise me if we see them in the super bowl.

Picks: Vikings +3 (@Cowboys)

Two teams I dislike. Vikings played well against Kansas City and just came up short. The Cowboys beat the Giants handedly. I think this game will be close and the Vikings pull it out late. Hopefully by a touchdown. It still amazes me people think Dak is better than Carson Wentz.

——————————————————————————————————————

College Football

Iowa +9.5 (@Wisconsin)

Georgia -16.5 (vs. Mizzou)

Notre Dame -6 (@Duke)

Oklahoma -13 (vs. Iowa State)

Boise State -13.5 (vs. Wyoming)

Hawaii -7 (vs. San Jose State)

No explanations needed for these picks. I have spent the entire week researching to have my best week yet. I’m really excited about Alabama vs. LSU. I want to see how Burrow’s reacts in the biggest game of his career. I’ll address this blog in my weekend recap coming Monday morning.

Gamble on, folks.

Any questions/tips? Email me at calderonevi@yahoo.com.

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