What a difference a week makes.
The Patriots should be resting and recovering from a brutal schedule but instead are gearing up to face a lethal Titans team.
Lethal is the only way to describe the Titans offense and the fact is the Patriots desperately need to get off to a good start offensively to keep up.
The Titans score points at large. They have the best red zone touchdown percentage (75.6 percent) in the NFL since 1991.
Good teams score in the red zone, and the Patriots could probably take some advice from the Titans.
Ryan Tannehill is a big reason why they score a lot of points.
The bad news for the Titans? The Patriots stout defense ranks first against the pass and seventh against the run, based on DVOA%.
Derrick Henry needs to get going early if the Titans want to have a chance at winning in Foxboro. New England has looked vulnerable against the run in recent weeks, so, it would only be fitting one of the best backs in the league could have a big day.
Tom Brady needs to be a better Quarterback in the playoffs. After his performance against Buffalo, Brady looked sure to have found his rhythm again. But, a bad outing against Miami has fans still scratching their head.
Brady has just a 77.2% passing rating this season according to PFF. The Patriots haven’t helped Brady by not running the ball well. Sony Michel has struggled all season to be consistent.
The Patriots key to victory will be to get the run game going and take pressure off of Brady early. The Titans can score a lot of points, and the only way the Patriots can keep up is if they control possession. The Titans key to victory is to get a pass rush going early.
The Patriots have utilized a quick pass game in order to help the struggling offensive line and if Tennessee can eliminate that, it could be a long night for Tom Brady and New England.
It should be a fun one in Foxboro today. The 2020 NFL Playoffs are here.
The Final Count is currently researching:
Ben Baldwin works for The Athletic Seattle and does great work with analytics. I have been researching how Expected Points can help predict match-ups in the NFL, thus affecting point spreads and over/unders. We used the information to predict games this weekend. You can find that here: